The Futures of Homelessness Part 8 — Looking to the Future of Homelessness with Uncertainty Using a 2x2
In the past weeks we have looked at the driving forces of homelessness in California (see part 6 of this series). Six of the top drivers included:
- Driver 1: The Leaning Tower of Policy
- Driver 2: Economic Tectonics — The Great Divide
- Driver 3: Social Attitudes
- Driver 4: Housing 101 — Supply & Demand
- Driver 5: Uncontrolled Urbanization
- Driver 6: Public Health and Safety Emergency
Now we must take all that we have learned about the state of homelessness and the driving forces of the future and start to put together some visions of what the futures might be. One way we do this is to look closely at two drivers that have large impacts on futures and have some level of uncertainty to them. We then compare these drivers and their possible extreme outcomes in a simple 2x2 scenario matrix. The result? Four very different futures.
Futures With an S — A quick Aside
As futurists we look at futures — plural. This is an important distinction as we are not predicting a single future, instead we are highlighting the possible destinations we might arrive at based on research and science, and we are illuminating the paths to each of those futures. See previous post Today’s Futures Brought to You by the Letter ‘S’.
The Two Drivers
Picking two drivers to compare in a 2x2 can be a challenge. First, we should look at which drivers have the largest amount of uncertainty. If there is a driver (say ‘Public Health and Safety Emergency’) but we know with good certainty that this is indeed happening, then we can dismiss as a key axis of uncertainty (there is little chance the substance abuse, human waste, and used needles will disappear in 20 years). The driver ‘Social Attitudes’ however could easily have outcomes in two extremes and is therefore a good driver to create scenarios.
Let’s take a close look at two of the drivers above, Social Attitudes and Urban Planning. Being the astute reader that you are, you may look at the list above and say, “I do not see ‘Urban Planning’ as a driver”. You would be absolutely correct. In the process of analysis, sometimes we shift the drivers to create better levers for the future. In this case I combined ‘The Leaning Tower of Policy’ with ‘Uncontrolled Urbanization’ as it creates a much better axis to create our plausible futures.
The Axis Questions
When we use drivers as an axis for creating a 2x2, we want to look at the main question of that driver. What will happen in both extremes in our time horizon. In other words, a ’this or that’ question.
Social Attitudes
Will communities declare a compassionate, caring, and a “we are all in this together” spirit or will a growing backlash against the homeless grow the “us and them” attitudes.
Urban Planning
Will cities be able to properly plan for changing “urbagraphics” and a rise in population or will they be stuck in a reactionary mode, always two steps behind?
Each of these drivers shows two very different extremes. “Unrequited Compassion vs. Preservation of Self” and “Reactionary Rules vs. Well Planned Policy.” Put together, these two drivers help inform four distinct scenarios that we can use to help us vision futures:
Sharing is Caring (Unrequited Compassion + Reactionary RuleS) — Governments keep status quo while citizens take to the streets to help.
Public Enemy (Preservation of Self + Reactionary Tides) — The public is fed up and demands that the state “take care of the issue”. Governments flounder as the crisis expands and budgets buckle.
Police State (Preservation of Self + Well Planned Policy) — Governments plan for the future with adaptive programs, but a change in public attitude has many policy makers creating unfriendly policies and in some cases brutal enforcement.
Rising Tide (Unrequited Compassion +Well Planned Policy)— Social programs and a caring public end chronic homeless by instituting expensive but affective new policies and getting the homeless the care they need.
Over the next four weeks we will take a closer look at each scenario and uncover what 2040 might look like if things trend in each direction — if the drivers take us to a transformative world, or one of collapse (hint — the real answer is probably a bit of both).
And now a bit of thanks to those who have been following this series so far and all of the encouragement (this means you mom). Please let me know your thoughts on these posts and what else you would like to see — dare I say it — in the future.
