Futures Friday: The Current State of the Homeless Crisis in California
The Futures of Homelessness Part 3 — How We Got Here
As a consultant, strategist, or futurist, it is always important before looking ahead to take a moment and to see how we got here — and where exactly “here” is.
The homeless crisis in California has a lot of layers, and even more causes that have shaped its current state — far too many for a short Futures Friday article. This week I will try to highlight some of waypoints that have brought us here and then take a short tour of the present. This landscape will help focus and frame our visions of the futures of this crisis in 2040.
A Brief History
While there are many recent historical events that effect homelessness in California, the current issues stem from historic policies and trends escalating in massive homelessness in the 1980s. This is only a small glimpse into some of the events that have brought us to where we are today.
Pre 2000
· 1933 — CA requires each county to have a “General Assistance” program to provide a type of loan to the poor with no other income.
· 1967 — Ronald Reagan signs the Lanterman-Petris-Short ending the practice of admitting patients into psychiatric institutions against their will — however without an adequate social net to provide support to these individuals, many end up homeless.
· 1978 — State passes prop 13 to limit the tax rate for real estate creating massive effects in the housing and rental market including a housing shortage.
· 1980s — Mass encampments rise in LA and other counties starting a trend that continues today.
2000–2010
· The dot.com boom of the ‘90s and ‘00s leads to the gentrification and economic expansion of many cities causing an increase in cost of living and housing shortage.
· Newsom’s housing plan — in 2004/5 then mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, introduces his plan to create more housing for homeless and low-income households. While successful at first, this plan stalls out. Newsom has continued this strategy into his tenure as governor with some critics of its effectiveness.
· 2005 — LA county does its first comprehensive homeless count leading to a trend of data-driven responses
· 2006 — LA cracks down on homeless by issuing thousands of citations for minor offenses. Later that year a new agreement allows homeless people to sleep on sidewalks leading to more encampments
2009 — Federal courts order CA to reduce prison population by 46,000 — again without a social program to help manage the large-scale release
2010–2020
· Obama administration starts housing first initiative for veterans in 2009 that leads to a 49% drop in veteran homelessness in the next 10 years.
· 2019 — Federally mandated homeless count conducted around the country to get better data on the homeless crisis
· In 2020, more than 150,000 of CA residents sleep in shelters, cars, or on the street
· 2020 — CA seeks to create a data platform for getting in depth data on the homeless crisis
Current Conditions Today
Understanding a little of the history of the homeless crisis in California helps guide us into seeing where we are, but in order to create futures scenarios, we need to have more information on where we are starting from.
Below is a list of a few of the current topics and conditions facing homelessness today.
· Skid row in LA sees a 11% increase in homelessness from 2018–2019 to total of 4,757 homeless in approximately ½ square mile. http://www.ladowntownnews.com/news/number-of-homeless-people-on-skid-row-spikes-by/article_aa32fbda-bafb-11e9-849f-ab047fa8951a.html
· Homeless conditions in rural areas see dramatic spike in population, in some areas over 100% increase. https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/California-s-homelessness-crisis-moves-to-the-12182026.php#
· CA average hose price is 618,016 increasing 9.8% from 2019. SF mean price is at 1.4m. https://www.zillow.com/ca/home-values/
· More than 20 percent of Californians pay more than half their income for housing. https://www.kqed.org/news/11666284/5-reasons-californias-housing-costs-are-so-high
· About a third of homeless people have serious mental illness https://calmatters.org/health/breakdown-mental-health/2020/02/mentally-ill-homeless-force-treatment-california-newsom-state-of-state/
· 69% of homeless in CA are unsheltered. https://www.ppic.org/blog/a-snapshot-of-homelessness-in-california/
· CA 2021 budget proposes $1.75 billion in new investments for homeless housing, including $750 million to continue the pandemic program that helps cities and counties buy hotels, apartments, for long-term homeless housing. Newsom also asked the legislature for funding to stimulate affordable housing construction and augment the construction workforce.
The proposal includes a one-time allocation of $1 billion for the acquisition and building of housing specifically for people who need behavioral health treatment settings and for low income vulnerable seniors. The state and its larger local governments are set to receive a total $2.6 billion of the $25 billion rental relief program administered by the Treasury Department, which could further stabilize at-risk renters.
If these facts do not paint a complete enough picture of the crisis in California, please take the time to read the State of Homelessness in California Fact Sheet.
Looking Forward
Now that we have a sense of the current state of affairs, we can start to project some trends and look at what is planned for the future. With what we see now, how might the homeless crisis evolve over the next 20 years? Next week we will explore some of the initial glimpses in the possible futures. Then we will start to analyze all of this into something coherent. What does it all mean and how do we break the cycle of chronic homelessness in California.
